ANÁLISE DE FREQUÊNCIA DE VAZÕES MÁXIMAS REGISTRADAS NA BACIA HIDROGRÁFICA DO ALTO RIO JURUÁ, ACRE, BRASIL

Abstract

The risk associated with extreme floods is manageable and can be reduced, as it relates both to the probability of occurrence of a dangerous event and to the expectation of losses caused by it. In this sense, frequency analysis through probabilistic modeling of hydrological variables is an important tool. The present study aimed at investigating the probabilistic model that best fits the series of maximum flows recorded in the Upper Juruá River basin (Acre, Brazil), highlighting the probability associated with the recurrence of the main quantifying reference. It was concluded that generalized extreme value (GEV) and two-parameter lognormal (LN2) are the recommended distributions for Cruzeiro do Sul and GEV for Marechal Thaumaturgo, whose decision was supported by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling tests. LN2 proved to be more rigorous with a return time of more than 50 years for flows in Cruzeiro do Sul.